Quantum technology predictions for 2026

Predicting the future is probably a fool's game, but here are our predictions for quantum randomness, communication, sensing and computing - plus post-quantum cryptography

It seems to be that time when everyone rolls out their predictions for the year ahead. When it comes to quantum technology, I’m quite confident about many things that won’t happen in 2026, despite the hype from many quarters (for example, we won’t see a large scale fault tolerant quantum computer that can threaten current encryption). I’m less sure of what will happen, but in the spirit of the current frenzy, here is a one prediction for 2026 for each of the main areas of quantum technology.

Picture generated by Copilot

Quantum random number generators will find applications outside cryptography

Quantum random number generators (QRNGs), probably the most mature quantum technology, work by exploiting the inherent randomness of quantum processes. Because they don’t require complex setup and control, and are fairly resistant to noise, the manufacturing is easier. Such commercial appliances have been around for many years, generally targeted for cryptographic applications, in particular the generation of reliably random encryption keys. However, for most organisations this just isn’t a problem they are worried about, particularly when they realise that actually a QRNG on its own won’t do anything to address the risks of quantum-vulnerable encryption. Hence QRNGs have had limited commercial success to date, despite this particular quantum technology being well developed.

There could, however, be other potential applications where there is an important role for a QRNG’s ability to generate a high rate of reliably random numbers. An example could be random sampling calculations (sometime referred to as Monte Carlo methods). An Oxford company, Quantum Dice, recently received a grant to use their QRNG for “probabilistic computing”, which hints at other potential applications beyond cryptography. In 2026, it likely that we will see more progress in finding such new use cases, which are probably required to unlock the commercial potential of this capability.

Quantum sensing will deliver value in more niche use cases

Quantum sensing uses the delicate nature of quantum devices, in particular their sensitivity to their environment, to detect changes in environmental characteristics such as magnetic, electric and gravitational fields. While a number of practical constraints means they haven’t delivered some sort of sensing “superpower” that can instantly detect any changes anywhere, recently we have seen them used to solve very specific problems. A good example was Q-CTRL’s demonstration of how a magnetic sensor, coupled with a high accuracy reference map of the Earth’s magnetic field can be used to enable precise navigation that is not dependent on GPS satellite signals.

In 2026, we will probably see one or two more such uses emerge, which similarly can solve real world problems, using a quantum sensor that can be delivered at a suitable price point. One potential candidate could be gravitational sensors - perhaps for mapping changes in composition under the Earth’s surface.

Quantum communication will pivot from quantum key distribution to enabling distributed quantum systems

Quantum communication systems, which can be used to transport¹ quantum states from one location to another, have existed in some form for many years, although they are limited in terms of the setup and distances over which they can be used reliably (up to around 100km using optical fibre). Commercial applications to date have mainly focussed on quantum key distribution (QKD) - using quantum properties to transmit an encryption key between two parties while verifying that no-one else has read the information en route. However, the hardware limitations, and the complexity of integrating QKD into a full encryption system, mean that it’s not really turned out to be useful for this purpose. In fact, during 2025 there was an emerging consensus amongst Western cyber security agencies, including Australia’s ACSC, that QKD should not be relied upon as part of any contemporary security strategy.

However, QKD is potentially a distraction from (in my view) the real purpose of quantum communication and networking - to couple together different quantum systems in a way that creates quantum “entanglement” between them. This effectively makes them a single distributed quantum system. This can be valuable to scale up quantum computers by connecting separate processing units, or to enable quantum sensors to operate across larger physical scales. In 2026, hopefully² we will see the development efforts for quantum communication focussed on this application, rather than the sideshow of QKD. The US$60m fundraising by Nu-Quantum last month could be an example of progress in this direction.

Quantum computing’s path to utility will still be unclear

2025 saw a dizzying range of announcements from different companies developing quantum computing hardware. Some seemed more designed to grab headlines, but others showed genuine progress in important areas such as qubit quality, error rates and error correction. However, comparing the 5 year predictions made in 2020 with where we actually got to in 2025 give pause for thought, to say the least.

In 2026 we can expect more of the same - lots of noise and bluster, but underneath this, concrete steps towards the elusive goal of large scale, fault-tolerant quantum computers that can actually deliver commercial value. However, it is likely that in 12 months time we will still be unclear about when we will get there, or which of the various types of hardware modality being developed are the most promising candidates. There will still be potential roadblocks on all the roadmaps, and much work to do come 2027. (However, this doesn’t discount the possibility that we might see one or two narrow cases of quantum advantage emerge for very niche applications on current noisy, intermediate scale quantum computers.)

Post Quantum Cryptography

We should start out by admitting that post-quantum cryptography (PQC) is actually not a quantum technology. However, it is an important part of a strategy for organisations to prepare for a quantum future, and therefore it is often considered alongside quantum technologies. Indeed, PQC is an important component of MDR Quantum’s work and also happens to be the area where I believe there is likely to be the most significant developments in 2026.

This is because there is increasing awareness of the threat. Although large-scale quantum computers that could seriously threaten current encryption are a long way off, there is a need for organisations to start planning to implement PQC now. This is due to the long-term risks from quantum computers, and the significant time that migration to PQC will take in many cases. In 2026, this awareness will grow further, and organisations will start to develop a better view of their risk and plan their PQC upgrade programs of work.

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So maybe, after all that, the biggest developments in quantum in 2026 will actually be for a technology that isn’t actually quantum - but let’s see this time next year what actually happened!

Meanwhile, given the expected developments in PQC this year, look out for our upcoming series of articles on the topic - beginning with an explainer.

1. I’m trying to avoid using the term “teleportation”, since it is probably the most confusing and misleading term used in quantum!

2. I will freely admit that this prediction is strongly influenced by what I hope will happen as much as what I actually think will happen.